It's almost impossible to beat the haul the Lightning got in 1998 (Vincent Lecavalier, Brad Richards, Dimitry Afanasenkov, and Martin Cibak), but I think the Lightning might've just completed their second best draft in team history. They already completed a first in history making a pair of first round picks on night one of the draft with Victor Hedman and Carter Ashton, so they were on their way already.
However, their second and fourth round selections really put this draft over the top. Richard Panik is a big time gamble, but he's going to a very good program in Windsor and will be playing for Bob Boughner. On pure talent, he could be even better than Ashton if you can get his head on straight, and he'll be in the environment in Windsor to facilitate that.
And, we love that Alex Hutchings pick. Absolutely love it. You got a hockey player who can play center or wing. Good skater. Good hockey sense. He can pass. He can shoot. He mucks well for a little guy. He just knows how to play the game. It's shocking he fell into the Lightning's lap in the fourth round, and in getting Hutchings the Lightning completed a very successful first four rounds where they got 4 of the top 48 rated prospects by THN and 4 of the top 60 by Red Line. That's in a deep draft, no less, so they got a lot of quality.
The goaltenders, Zador and Janus, seem like a reaction to Karri Ramo's defection. Zador's got to get playing time, but he was a first rounder in the OHL Priority Draft in 2007, so he's got raw ability. Janus made his name at the WJC's and had decent statistics for Erie this season. Because Janus was an overager, he'll probably only have one more year in junior. Zador probably gets two. You're just wishing and hoping one of them develops the way Ramo did when the Lightning took a sixth rounder on him out of Lahti.
I have a feeling the Lightning got some value out of that Gotovets pick. I'm guessing if his name was Johnson or Wilson, he might've gone a couple of rounds sooner, but teams are terrified of the KHL poaching their players. Yes, there's a danger if Gotovets develops he could be poached by Dynamo Minsk, but he's already taken the step of coming over to Shattuck and he already speaks pretty flawless English. I don't think you make that commitment and go to an Ivy League school like Cornell only to turn back around and go back to Belarus, and I have yet to hear about anything glaringly wrong with his game other than the fact he's pretty skinny. He'll be a darkhorse to watch over the next few years.
The only regret is that the Lightning didn't find a way to get an offensive defenseman or two into the system. That'll be something they'll need to look at next year, and they'll certainly continue to try to flesh out their forward depth. Getting Ashton, Panik, and Hutchings was a whale of a start, though. Very good draft. I suspect they get at least three NHL players out of this group.
Evidently, Janus would've gone to Russia to play in the KHL if he hadn't been drafted, and he wants to play pro this season and not go back to junior. That's an interesting problem for a Lightning organization that has Riku Helenius and Dustin Tokarski all but inked into the lineup in Norfolk next season.
Name: Kirill Gotovets
Weight: 175 lbs
Club: Shattuck St. Mary's (USHS)
Rankings: CSS-179 (North American Skater) Red Line- 123
Statistics: Shattuck (USHS), 50 GP, 6-23-29, 66 PIM
The Koules family's connection to Shattuck St. Mary's strikes late as the Lightning have selected smallish puckmoving defenseman Kirill Gotovets. The Belarussian born defenseman has committed to play for Cornell of the ECACHL and has international experience with the Belarussian junior team. He's a good skater who might be suffering from NHL teams' new fears surrounding losing players to the KHL. Gotovets' KHL rights are held by his hometown club Dynamo Minsk. If Gotovets bypasses Cornell, for some reason, the Brandon Wheat Kings of the WHL hold his rights.
Money quote from Red Line Report: "Smallish, finesse rearguard is a fine puck mover."
Name: Jaroslav Janus
Weight: 192 lbs
Club: Erie (OHL)
Rankings: CSS- 13 (North American Goaltenders), Red Line- 103
Statistics: Erie (OHL), 49 GP, 25-20-3-1, 3 SO, 3.24 GAA, .908 sv%
The Lightning continue to add more organizational depth in net by selecting Jaroslav Janus, who was passed over in last year's draft. The Slovakian born netminder rose based on his work for the national team at the World Junior Championships, where he was named the best goaltender in the tournament. He's an athletic reflex goaltender who is very competitive, and has good rebound control. The knocks on Janus are that he doesn't play his angles well consistently and he does not have a good glove hand. Red Line projects him as a goaltender who will be a number three type in the organization and compares his style to that of Cristobal Huet or Jaroslav Halak. Because he's an overage prospect, he might find his way into the minor league for the system before Zador.
Money quote from Red Line: "Not a sure thing but we really love his competitiveness."
The Lightning traded next year's 5th round pick to acquire pick 148 in the 5th round.
Name: Michael Zador
Weight: 172 lbs
Club: Oshawa (OHL)
Rankings: CSS- 10 (North American Goaltenders), Red Line- 220, THN (NR)
Statistics: London/Oshawa (OHL), 28 GP, 11-13-0-1, 0 SO, 3.65 GAA, .897 sv%
The Lightning grabbed the project goaltender we thought they might get by selecting Oshawa's Michael Zador. He was selected in the 1st round of the OHL Priority Draft in 2007 and has good size and plays an efficient, butterfly style. He plays with an economy of motion but needs to get technically more sound, particularly with his angles and rebound control. He'll play two more years in junior and the Lightning will see what they have.
Name: Alex Hutchings
Weight: 173 lbs
Club: Barrie (OHL)
Rankings: CSS- 44(North American Skater), Red Line- 43, THN- 48, TSN- 58
Statistics: Barrie (OHL), 63 GP, 34-34-68, 60 PIM
Thievery. That's how we feel about getting Alex Hutchings in the fourth round. Pure thievery. We wouldn't have blinked if the Lightning took him in the second round, so the fact he's slipped this far is very exciting. Hutchings is one of the best skaters in the OHL and he is intelligent with a high motor. He plays in all phases of the game, and for a little guy he's surprisingly willing to get his nose dirty along the wall. Hutchings has scoring line upside, and unlike Panik, he plays an honest enough game that he can also play on your lower lines if you need him to. Bottom line: the Lightning got a hockey player. Red Line compares Hutchings to Chris Kunitz.
Money quote from Brian Lawton tweeting from the draft, "Our Dir. of Amateur Scouting Jim Hammett was so excited about getting Hutchings he started drinking my pop on accident." If we were there, we'd be drinking Lawton's pop too.
Bonus money quote from Red Line, which rates Hutchings as the 14th most underrated prospect in this draft: "Skates well, scores a bunch of goals, plays hard, and sound in his own end. Yet no one seems to take much notice." In addition, Red Line ranks Hutchings as having the 12th best hockey sense in this draft class. Victor Hedman, incidentally, was 2nd.
Name: Richard Panik
Weight: 203 lbs
Club: Trinec (CZE)
Rankings: CSS- 13 (European Skater), Red Line- 60, THN- 31, TSN- 38
Statistics: Trinec J-20 (CZE J-20), 16 GP, 10-9-19, 36 PIM
Havirov (CZE2), 3 GP, 2-1-3, 0 PIM
Trinec (CZE), 15 GP, 1-1-2, 4 PIM
The Lightning took a tremendous swing for the fences with high risk, high reward forward Richard Panik from Slovakia by way of the Czech Republic. In terms of raw skills and athleticism, he has first round talent. He has great outside speed and a sharp snap shot with great playmaking abilities too. He's also very strong on his stick and is a tank when he brings his battle level up. The problem with Panik is that there are big questions about his attitude and his work ethic, and he's been criticized for allowing himself to get out of shape too. Red Line Report projects him as either a second line scorer in the NHL or a total bust, with upside to be like Marian Hossa. There's no safety net with Panik, though.
The money quote on Panik from Red Line, "Excellent size/skills combination - on talent alone he'd be first round material." Let's hope he gets his head on straight. The Windsor Spitfires of the OHL hold his Import Draft rights and Brian Lawton just tweeted he will play in North America next season.
Hard to argue with what the Lightning accomplished tonight at the draft. I think the two players they got are definitely going to be NHLers and their athleticism is bullet-proof. For the second year in a row, they got the perfect fit getting Victor Hedman. He's exactly what the Lightning needed, and he has the ability to make the entire defensive corps better. In a perfect world, the Lightning would've been able to get one of those pure offensive defensemen to pair with him that they could just turn loose, but it wasn't in the cards.
Credit to Brian Lawton for being aggressive trying to move up. From about pick #10 or #11, the Lightning were trying to move back into the first round to acquire another prospect. This is the first time in team history they've been this aggressive, and they got a good payoff for it. I was worried that the ownership squabbles were such a distraction that Lawton would sit on his hands tonight, but that wasn't the case. They had the resources to make moves, and they tried to do so.
I have no problem moving a pick outside of the top-60 to move up a few picks to get a player you believe is going to be an NHLer, and Carter Ashton was very good value at pick 29. He should have gone around pick 20 and there are several forwards who were taken ahead of him that simply aren't better players than he is. The Lightning got a guy who's going to be that Modin type player who does the board work for you and drives the slot and bangs 25-30 goals home for you. They've desperately needed a player like that since Modin was dealt. Even Ryan Malone, as good as he is around the opposing crease, could be stronger along the wall. Ashton's great along the wall, with the added dimension of being a good fighter if you provoke him. He might end up being a good protector for Stamkos down the road. A simple meat and potatoes game like he has translates well on any line you put him on. I thought the Lightning might take a player like Ashton like Budish, for instance, with the pick at 32. I never though Ashton would slide down as low as 29 to be a possibility for the Lightning. Definitely a rock solid pick.
The only downside from the first night of the draft is that because the Lightning don't pick again until 52, I don't know if they'll be able to grab a righty shot offensive defenseman. There are some players still on the board they could use: Charles Olivier Roussel of Shawinigan and Stefan Elliott of Saskatoon are still out there. Eric Gelinas of Lewiston is a lefty shot defenseman with a lot of offensive upside who is still out there as well. I doubt they'll make it to 52, though, and I doubt the Lightning have the resources left to move up from 52 to get one.
Chad and Tim from our staff made a good point to me: now that you have Ashton to go along with a prospect like Johan Harju, you need a playmaker to set these big snipers up because they're not the type of players who make their own offense on the rush. But, other than Alex Hutchings of Barrie, there's not many playmakers left. There are some snipers like Jeremy Morin of the USNTDP, Toni Rajala from the Ilves program, Landon Ferraro of Red Deer, and Ben Hanowski of Little Falls High School. There's also a wild card like Zach Budish, who's a power forward who can do it all, but was hurt all year. So, there's a lot of talent still hanging around. I just wish the Lightning could be at about 42 rather than 52 to know they're going to get a player like that.
Another thought is that Rick Tocchet tweeted that there's a scary enforcer who the Lightning should take a look at. Defenseman Brayden McNabb, who is rated at 66 by Red Line and 54 by THN is one of the toughest players in this draft, apparently bit someone somewhere along the way this season. Cannibalism qualifies as scary.
The Lightning have traded their first second round pick (#32) and their third round pick (#75) for the 29th pick in the first round.
Name: Carter Ashton
Weight: 205 lbs
Club: Lethbridge (WHL)
Rankings: CSS- 12 (North American Skater), Red Line- 22, THN- 20, TSN- 20
Statistics: Lethbridge (WHL), 70 GP, 30-20-50, 93 PIM, -5
The Lightning moved up to get a hard hat and lunch pail type power forward in Carter Ashton of the WHL. Ashton plays simple, meat and potatoes hockey. He forechecks hard, he's strong on the puck, and he drives the net. He has good straight line speed and agility but does not possess an explosive first step. Red Line describes him as a, "Tantalizing combination of a huge frame, good skating stride, and goal scoring hands," and projects him as a second line NHL player in the mold of Dustin Penner. TSN takes it a step further comparing Ashton to Bill Guerin.
One more detail that bears mentioning: although Ashton doesn't always bring a consistent level of physical play night in and night out, he's described as a frightningly good fighter if you provoke him. He's a bad, bad man with the mitts off.
Name: Victor Hedman
Weight: 220 lbs
Club: MODO (SWE)
Rankings: CSS- 1 (European Skater), Red Line- 1, THN-2 ISS- 3, TSN-2
Statistics: MODO (SWE), 43 GP, 7-14-21, 52 PIM, +21
For the second season in a row, the Lightning luck into getting the best player available at their biggest need. In Hedman, the Lightning get a legitimate number one defenseman who can step into the NHL right away after playing 20 minutes a night last season for MODO in the Elitserien. Red Line report calls Hedman, "A less edgy Chris Pronger," but it should be noted that Hedman also skates better than Pronger ever could, ranking 11th in this draft class according to Red Line in terms of the best skaters in the class. Aside from his mobility, Hedman has incredible poise and maturity, and does everything well. He's good under pressure with the puck and makes good decisions on when to move it and when to eat it. His passing is superb and has a big shot and loves to use the one-timer on the power play. The only knock is that Hedman doesn't have a mean streak, but he's got excellent range, and a great reach, and minds his gaps well. He's a true shut down defenseman in his own end, and his +21 rating in the Elitserien was tied for third best in the league, which is amazing for an 18 year old. Expect him to be a solid 40-50 point a year defenseman when he develops to his full potential in three or four seasons, and he'll make the entire defensive corps around him better because he can play 25 minutes a night, which will put the rest of the corps in roles they're more naturally suited for. In addition, he's so good defensively, he gives the Lightning license to go get a risk-taking offensive defenseman to pair with him.
Money quote from Red Line: "Has as much pure talent as any player in the last four drafts." Potentially better than Stamkos? Sign us up.
We're starting up the chat now, for folks who's like to join the party at our own virtual Barnacles in Brandon. Try the fried calamari, or the mozerella sticks. The chat is open to anyone registered for the Bolt Prospects message board.